Alright, the US Open kicked off at Pinehurst No. 2, and you know what that means – trying to figure out where that cut line is going to land. It’s become a bit of a ritual for me during major weeks, especially the Open because it’s always such a beast.
Figuring Out the Number
So, first thing I did was just pull up the leaderboard on Thursday morning. Had it running on my second screen while I was pretending to work. Watched those early scores trickle in. Saw a lot of guys struggling right out of the gate. Lots of bogeys, doubles even. That immediately told me Pinehurst wasn’t playing games this year, not that it ever does.
Then I started poking around a bit online. Checked a few sports sites, forums, places where folks were already throwing out numbers. Saw everything from +3 to +6. It’s always a wild guess early on, right? People just look at the course name and toss a number out. But I wanted to put a bit more thought into it myself.
My next step was thinking back. I tried to remember previous US Opens held at really tough tracks. What was the cut line like at Winged Foot? Shinnecock Hills? Oakmont? Those places usually see cuts around +4, +5, sometimes even higher if the weather turns nasty. Pinehurst No. 2 definitely belongs in that category. Those turtleback greens are just brutal.
I spent some time actually watching the coverage too, not just score-watching. Listened to what the analysts were saying. They kept highlighting how firm the greens were, how tough the chipping areas are. If you miss a green, getting up and down is a nightmare. That seemed to be the main story. It wasn’t just hitting fairways; the approach shots and short game looked incredibly demanding.
Putting it Together
So, I started piecing things together:
- Course Reputation: Pinehurst No. 2 is historically tough.
- Early Scores: Lots of players were over par early on Thursday.
- Commentary: Experts emphasizing the difficulty, especially around the greens.
- Past Data: Tough US Open venues often have cuts at +4 or higher.
- Conditions: Looked firm and fast, though the wind wasn’t a huge factor initially.
Considering all that, I felt like +4 might be a little low. The course just seemed to have too much bite. I started leaning towards +5. Maybe even +6 if the USGA decided to get really mean with the pins on Friday or if the wind picked up significantly.
It’s funny, I remember one year watching the cut line drama unfold, think it might have been Oakmont. Guys were grinding so hard just to make the weekend. It wasn’t about birdies; it was about survival. That’s kind of the essence of the US Open for me, and why tracking the cut is interesting. It shows just how much the course is testing the best players in the world.
So, yeah, that was my process. Looked at scores, checked what others were saying, thought about history, watched the actual play, and considered the course itself. Landed on thinking the cut would likely be around +5 over par for the 2024 US Open after two rounds. Of course, it’s just an educated guess. Golf is unpredictable, especially at the US Open. But that’s where I netted out after doing my little research project.
